The way I see it is that deviations from expected results will always occur in football. And that’s a positive thing - because if it carries through to the sports betting markets then there will be opportunities to find value. Games are inaccurately assessed because the football media always wants to attribute a reason for why something happened, or didn’t happen. But the fact is, it was just a bad day at the office. In these situations the home team will often be unfairly criticised for displaying a “poor work ethic” and “lack of quality”. The winning manager is often credited for a “masterstroke”– completely disregarding the fact that his team displayed a lack of creativity, and that this type of performance is not sustainable and will result in losses. The media will often make out that the losing team got what they deserved for being wasteful, and that the winning team had a plan all along. There’s no doubt who should’ve won the game. The home team bossed the game and wasted great chances, while the away team was awarded with a dubious penalty and scored a late header (their one and only shot on goal).
